Friday, March 16, 2012

Statistics and Lin’s Future


They always say “Numbers don’t lie”. Yes, they never do and they never will.

But be alert when you heard the percentage (%), that’s the twisted version of truth-speaking number. 

For example, HR management could report that the company has increased its employees by 50% over the year. The previous total employee in the company could be in fact two solid versatile shape-shifters. On the other hand, your stock might jump 80% in one month, but in reality you know that it is a penny stock. Using numbers and percentage is like watching the two ice skaters spinning and twisting each other in beauty.

How is it relevant to Lin’s future?

The field goal percentage one NBA player possesses predicts his future contract and his potential of being in the starting lineup. The way to increase percentage % is no brainer. For the starter, if one took a shot and made it, he’d have 100%. But as he goes along, making shots, the possibility of dumping percentage is way more easier than pumping it up. For example, if one has 80% field goal percentage for his 100 shots, he had made 80 shot baskets out of 100 attempts. If we go forward calculating in this statistics, we’ll see in his next attempt: possibility of making the basket is 50%, so is “shooting bricks” as well. And when you add up this 50% into existing 80% for entire FG%, we have

                               basket             |           brick  
101st shot       81/101 = 80.19%    |           80/101 = 79.21%
102nd shot      82/102 = 80.39%    |           80/102 = 78.43%
103rd shot      83/103 = 80.58%    |           80/103 = 77.67%
104th shot      84/104 = 80.77%    |           80/104 = 76.92%
105th shot      85/105 = 80.95%    |           80/105 = 76.19%
106th shot      86/106 = 81.13%    |           80/106 = 75.47%

This is a simple analysis of how 6th attempt after 100 shots can change the player’s field goal percentage. I also need to admit that this analysis of 6 shots is just a straightforward assumption that all of 6 shots made the basket or throw the bricks. In real life, after 102nd shot, one can throw the brick (103rd), and then come back to the basket (104th). This situation will make our statistical analysis more complicated than my current PhD project indeed. The variables here are (1) I used the existing FG 80%. If it’s changed to 50%, the percentage change will be equally distributed across the board because the existing percentage lies in the middle, (2) another variable is the number of shot attempts a player made. For simpler, I used 100 here.

Anyway all I wanted to point out here is, in order to increase 80% to 81% in this situation, one need to make 6 consecutive shots straight to the basket. If those 6 shots couldn’t make it? The percentage will plummet to about 75%. That’s how it is.

This analysis brings back to our question of how it is relevant to Lin’s future in Knicks. To increase the percentage, one needs to control the ball, and make several shots. Chances of controlling your FG percentage are proportionate to the chances of you controlling the ball and making shots. We therefore don’t need a rocket scientist to figure out who will be dominating in the list of higher FG%. The higher the FG percentage is, the higher the likelihood of getting contracts and controlling the ball. You may recall why Carmelo’s FG% dropped significantly after he came back from groin injury. Dumping the percentage is way more easier than pumping it up. Although he didn’t need to calculate statistics, we human by virtue of natural instinct, know that he needs to control the ball and make several shots to bring his FG% back to where it was before.

Now Mike D’Antoni departure and interim head coach Woodson’s subtle message that “rookies are supposed to sit and learn”, and clear statement that only two stars are allowed to make a shot when it comes to nut cutting time, we are left with another question of how occasional bouts of Lin’s appearance in the court will make him relevant to the Knicks and his future in NBA in the least.     

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