They always say “Numbers don’t lie”. Yes, they never do and
they never will.
But be alert when you heard the percentage (%), that’s the
twisted version of truth-speaking number.
For example, HR management could report that the company has
increased its employees by 50% over the year. The previous total employee in the
company could be in fact two solid versatile shape-shifters. On the other hand,
your stock might jump 80% in one month, but in reality you know that it is a
penny stock. Using numbers and percentage is like watching the two ice skaters
spinning and twisting each other in beauty.
How is it relevant to Lin’s future?
The field goal percentage one NBA player possesses predicts
his future contract and his potential of being in the starting lineup. The way
to increase percentage % is no brainer. For the starter, if one took a shot and
made it, he’d have 100%. But as he goes along, making shots, the possibility of
dumping percentage is way more easier than pumping it up. For example, if one
has 80% field goal percentage for his 100 shots, he had made 80 shot baskets
out of 100 attempts. If we go forward calculating in this statistics, we’ll see
in his next attempt: possibility of making the basket is 50%, so is “shooting
bricks” as well. And when you add up this 50% into existing 80% for entire FG%,
we have
basket | brick
101st shot 81/101
= 80.19% | 80/101 = 79.21%
102nd shot 82/102
= 80.39% | 80/102 = 78.43%
103rd shot 83/103
= 80.58% | 80/103 = 77.67%
104th shot 84/104
= 80.77% | 80/104 = 76.92%
105th shot 85/105
= 80.95% | 80/105 = 76.19%
106th shot 86/106
= 81.13% | 80/106 = 75.47%
This is a simple analysis of how 6th attempt
after 100 shots can change the player’s field goal percentage. I also need to
admit that this analysis of 6 shots is just a straightforward assumption that
all of 6 shots made the basket or throw the bricks. In real life, after 102nd
shot, one can throw the brick (103rd), and then come back to the
basket (104th). This situation will make our statistical analysis
more complicated than my current PhD project indeed. The variables here are (1)
I used the existing FG 80%. If it’s changed to 50%, the percentage change will
be equally distributed across the board because the existing percentage lies in
the middle, (2) another variable is the number of shot attempts a player made.
For simpler, I used 100 here.
Anyway all I wanted to point out here is, in order to
increase 80% to 81% in this situation, one need to make 6 consecutive shots
straight to the basket. If those 6 shots couldn’t make it? The percentage will
plummet to about 75%. That’s how it is.
This analysis brings back to our question of how it is
relevant to Lin’s future in Knicks. To increase the percentage, one needs to
control the ball, and make several shots. Chances of controlling your FG
percentage are proportionate to the chances of you controlling the ball and
making shots. We therefore don’t need a rocket scientist to figure out who will
be dominating in the list of higher FG%. The higher the FG percentage is, the
higher the likelihood of getting contracts and controlling the ball. You may
recall why Carmelo’s FG% dropped significantly after he came back from groin
injury. Dumping the percentage is way more easier than pumping it up. Although
he didn’t need to calculate statistics, we human by virtue of natural instinct,
know that he needs to control the ball and make several shots to bring his FG% back to where it was before.
Now Mike D’Antoni departure and interim head coach Woodson’s
subtle message that “rookies are supposed to sit and learn”, and clear
statement that only two stars are allowed to make a shot when it comes to nut
cutting time, we are left with another question of how occasional bouts of
Lin’s appearance in the court will make him relevant to the Knicks and his
future in NBA in the least.
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