Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Knicks Fans and Their Fantasy World


If I’d ask you “Can you name every player in, let’s say, percentage range of 0.5, Phoenix Suns? or even Boston Celtics?”

Your minds boggled like a minute and rumbled a few names until you stumbled upon 2nd unit or last bench player. You’d say “I know that guy with a headband and always does this and that.”

For Knicks? You won’t have such a problem naming until you’d reach the Knicks locker room. That’s how far the Knicks fan’s fanaticism goes. Every game when Knicks leads the opponent by +20 points, you’d hear chanting from the stadium every player name sitting on the bench. So don’t you wonder there’s still one person left to be named after all? I think you do. It’s Mike Woodson! You might be wondering when it’s an appropriate time to chant “We want Woodson on the floor!”? I couldn’t think of any time better than when Knicks having quarters break, an array of cheerleaders marching to the floor, dancing left and right, shaking their hips like so much crowded in the subway. Woodson then come to the floor and made a move with his shining head, I can see the two commentators’ conversation going:

Mike Breen: “ Clyde, even the his players can’t believe what he’s doing.”
Clyde Frazier: “Yes, Woodson providing evidence. Watch this, move to the left, move to the right, Woodson, shining and balding” (usual Fraziasm usage of words)

Typically there are two commentators for every NBA game. The function of one commentator is to talk about the live event on the floor, every move, pass, shot instantly. The other one is kind of like functioning as an analyst to describe the player’s motive or at least the performance of each player and overall game in general. In this scenario, Mike Breen is the former and Clyde Frazier is the latter. You’ll be familiar with Frazier’s commentaries like  

winning and grinning
swishing and dishing
pounding and astounding
swooping and hooping
slicing and dicing

It’s like rhyming with every possible ball movement and players tactics. The last punchline to my face was after I heard Frazier saying Shumpert’s “Kleptomaniac activity” made the opponent’s team seem weak. I mean…..I’m flabbergasted with the word choice and no where in this world can I lay my claim on benefit of having studied GRE*.

GRE* = Graduate Record Examination which is required for graduate students in their MSc or PhD application, especially in the US.

If I ask you what is the most significant feature you’d recognize when you see Shumpert on the floor? nope, that’s not it. It’s not his shining thick lip or his stealing maneuver. The first thing you would notice is his shoe color. It’s ORANGE!. Similarly, Jeremy Lin occasional blue shoe as well. I recall one commentator, don’t remember his name, apparently describing he wouldn’t dare to wear those strange color basketball shoes if possible. You know what he’s referring to. So it came up to my fancy thinking that how would it look like if Amare Stoudemire is supposed to wear Hello Kitty shoe? Just imagine. Every power forward player tends to show their masculinity and power by ferociously dunking the ball if opportunity arises, and then clenching their teeth, flexing their muscles, fisting tightly and then yelling “arrrrggggghh…” in front of supposedly media-frenzied cameramen crowded near the basket. Just imagine when Stoudemire showing his masculinity with Hello Kitty shoes. There’s gonna be wild – wildest dream of every possible fan. I can see Mike Breen and Frazier saying

Mike Breen: “Cylde, what a beautiful dunk by Amare.”
Clyde Frazier: “Yea, Mike, it’s Amare Stoudemire. He’s been catalytic lately. Watch this. He’s just standing there. Once he’s got the ball, time to shine on. Pounding and astounding with ….ugh…hello kitty?”

Anyway that’s my fancy thinking of Knicks lately and features of the Knicks players and the game. I’m sad to hear that Amare having bulging disc problem and Carmelo groin injury being on the notice, while Jared Jeffries having knee injury and Jeremy Lin on potential knee injury, all I can hope is things will get better soon.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Inspirational Story, Jeremy Lin


I’ve
… been learning how to make a video
… downloaded youtube videos
… chosen the theme songs I like
… selected the best shots notable
… made a short story line and a few punchlines

Here what it is taking me a few days…


Friday, March 16, 2012

Statistics and Lin’s Future


They always say “Numbers don’t lie”. Yes, they never do and they never will.

But be alert when you heard the percentage (%), that’s the twisted version of truth-speaking number. 

For example, HR management could report that the company has increased its employees by 50% over the year. The previous total employee in the company could be in fact two solid versatile shape-shifters. On the other hand, your stock might jump 80% in one month, but in reality you know that it is a penny stock. Using numbers and percentage is like watching the two ice skaters spinning and twisting each other in beauty.

How is it relevant to Lin’s future?

The field goal percentage one NBA player possesses predicts his future contract and his potential of being in the starting lineup. The way to increase percentage % is no brainer. For the starter, if one took a shot and made it, he’d have 100%. But as he goes along, making shots, the possibility of dumping percentage is way more easier than pumping it up. For example, if one has 80% field goal percentage for his 100 shots, he had made 80 shot baskets out of 100 attempts. If we go forward calculating in this statistics, we’ll see in his next attempt: possibility of making the basket is 50%, so is “shooting bricks” as well. And when you add up this 50% into existing 80% for entire FG%, we have

                               basket             |           brick  
101st shot       81/101 = 80.19%    |           80/101 = 79.21%
102nd shot      82/102 = 80.39%    |           80/102 = 78.43%
103rd shot      83/103 = 80.58%    |           80/103 = 77.67%
104th shot      84/104 = 80.77%    |           80/104 = 76.92%
105th shot      85/105 = 80.95%    |           80/105 = 76.19%
106th shot      86/106 = 81.13%    |           80/106 = 75.47%

This is a simple analysis of how 6th attempt after 100 shots can change the player’s field goal percentage. I also need to admit that this analysis of 6 shots is just a straightforward assumption that all of 6 shots made the basket or throw the bricks. In real life, after 102nd shot, one can throw the brick (103rd), and then come back to the basket (104th). This situation will make our statistical analysis more complicated than my current PhD project indeed. The variables here are (1) I used the existing FG 80%. If it’s changed to 50%, the percentage change will be equally distributed across the board because the existing percentage lies in the middle, (2) another variable is the number of shot attempts a player made. For simpler, I used 100 here.

Anyway all I wanted to point out here is, in order to increase 80% to 81% in this situation, one need to make 6 consecutive shots straight to the basket. If those 6 shots couldn’t make it? The percentage will plummet to about 75%. That’s how it is.

This analysis brings back to our question of how it is relevant to Lin’s future in Knicks. To increase the percentage, one needs to control the ball, and make several shots. Chances of controlling your FG percentage are proportionate to the chances of you controlling the ball and making shots. We therefore don’t need a rocket scientist to figure out who will be dominating in the list of higher FG%. The higher the FG percentage is, the higher the likelihood of getting contracts and controlling the ball. You may recall why Carmelo’s FG% dropped significantly after he came back from groin injury. Dumping the percentage is way more easier than pumping it up. Although he didn’t need to calculate statistics, we human by virtue of natural instinct, know that he needs to control the ball and make several shots to bring his FG% back to where it was before.

Now Mike D’Antoni departure and interim head coach Woodson’s subtle message that “rookies are supposed to sit and learn”, and clear statement that only two stars are allowed to make a shot when it comes to nut cutting time, we are left with another question of how occasional bouts of Lin’s appearance in the court will make him relevant to the Knicks and his future in NBA in the least.     

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Hearing Cracks at Knicks Eggs


Knicks Vs Mavericks
Carmelo finally admitted that
"I think anytime you go from the early part of the season, just having the ball and me just having the ball and being the distributor, and now just running the wings and waiting for the ball to come to me, that’s quite an adjustment for myself"

Knicks Vs Bulls (2012-March-12)
Amare Stoudemire opened his first concern
"The ball was coming to me in the third quarter,’’ he said. “I was ready from the start of the game to have a phenomenal game, but the ball just came to me in the third, as opposed to the other (quarters). I just take advantage whenever I get the ball."

Yes, that was a shot at Lin, who is responsible for distributing the ball. And in some ways, Stoudemire is right. But Lin was just dropped into this mess, right in the middle of Stoudemire’s and Anthony’s egos, and the malfunctioning system of coach Mike D’Antoni. (source: msn.foxsport.com)

My opinion
Dealing with these two egos and playing in media capital of the world, New York, I foresee Lin's life would be ups and downs; hero, total fluke, savior, underrated rookie, total fluke, underdog and what else we could expect? Chicago bulls fan chanted when Lin's in free throw, a resounding "over-rated". 

For Lin, his being humble, his trying the best he can in the court won't help haters, bandwagons, and the best of all won't help Knicks become the one of the most formidable teams in the NBA league.  

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Lin Vs Knicks, OR Linsanity was a pleasant dream

Facts: Lin will never flourish in Knicks team with Carmelo Anthony at best. Amare Stoudemire (Stat) ? Probably will work out for certain extent.

Melo will never find his niche in Knicks after Linsanity broke out in February.

Solution: The solution is either bench Lin while Melo and Stat are playing or the best starting lineup for Lin should be Lin, Landry, Tyson, Jeffries, Novak. On the other hand, Shumpert can rotate with either one of Jeffries or Novak, or at least Landry. And might I remind you that this starting lineup should be constant, uninterrupted by frequent rotations. And don't rotate with Melo in Lin's lineup. That will screw up for sure.

Results: Will this solution will get Knicks win the Championship? I highly doubt it. At least these match-up will give a partial answer to curb Knicks losing streak, but can't guarantee the ring.

Now let's go find out some interesting players analysis:

Ok, I've been pretty much following with the New York Knicks Basketball team after Linsanity broke out in Feb 10, I recall. Knicks Vs Nets, the game that Jeremy Lin become a basketball sensation in NBA. Do I need to mention the sensation is global?

After Lin was picked up from the end of the bench, Knicks became 7 straight win and Linsanity gave in when Knicks met Heat in Miami. Since then, Linsanity kind of cooled down, with public expectation that when Carmelo Anthony came back, he will ruin the tempo in Knicks and rightly so, he did although unintentionally, but unavoidably. What is really ruining Knicks tempo for this losing streak is not Carmelo, in my opinion; it is rooted in political display of players in the Knicks and the Mike D'Antoni's offensive approach to the game.

Let's just break down players stats, I'm not gonna dig into players field goal percentage, whatever percentage you can think of. If I tell you that you can put off fire by water, you don't need to know how water molecules react with burning oxygen from the fire.

Tyson Chandler: He's the tallest in the Knicks, so whenever game kicks in, his jump will give the ball to the Knicks. He is specialized in defense. He could be an asset sometimes when Knicks jumpshot didn't get the basket and get the rebounds, look at the Knicks Vs Raptor game when Shumpert took the last shot in tied game at 87, I heard some girls squeaking in the background. Shumpert shot didn't go in, but Chandler got the rebounds and passed the ball to Shumpert. Lin got the ball from Shumpert and finally shot the clutch 3-point. Since Chandler came from Mavericks, the last year Champion, all he cares is the ring. His role is defense. As long as offensive doing their jobs, his defense will help the Knicks win the game. Why I'm telling this Chandler's mindset? It's important because Chandler's specialized role in defense does not clash with point guard specialist. That's why we see a lot of chemistry during Lin's winning streak. Lin's alley oops and Chandler's dunk had been Knicks' fan's lasting memories.

Landry Fields: Landry and Lin goes way back when they were studying in Stanford and Harvard respectively. Whenever Lin visited his hometown in Palo Alto during his senior years, he used to play with Landry, as I recall. Might I also need to remind you that Lin slept on Landry's couch the day before Linsanity broke out against Nets in February? These two making rituals; flipping each other's books, putting the glasses back, and point their fingers up, they are kind of telling the world that they're ready to play some games seriously. Although Landry jumpshots are not consistent yet, he plays in almost every role. His defense, his ruffles, his dunk, his layup somehow makes up for his inconsistent jumpshot. He and Lin clicks a lot in terms of game tempo and chemistry. Why I'm telling you this? Am I developing bromance or brokeback mountain? No way! What I see from these two is both can really make a good team and Landry will fill Lin's weakness and Lin will look out for Landry if he's in the open space and can score. These two would be kind of similar to LeBron and Dwayne. I avoid to say they both are the same because some Heat fans will first throw me with their wrath for comparing these two nerdy rookies and their two kings. Anyway, Landry is in good form with Lin in the court.

Jeffries and Shumpert: Jeffries is not a powerforward, neither is Shumpert. These two are really putting their effort in defense as well as occasional shots at the rim. Since they are not powerforward, the creativity of point guard will help them score if opportunities arise. Sometimes opponent players do not seem to guard them well, presumably due to their relatively unpopularity comparing to Carmelo and Stat. So these facts are really useful when it comes to creating the space and letting them shot. Watch those Knicks game while Linsanity was at its peak, Jeffries shooting, Shumpert dunking are not uncommon. They know that their specialist roles are not powerforwad, rather defenses. But occasional rim opportunity made Knicks one of the best offensive teams, and yeah, of course during Linsanity at its highest peak. The reason why I brought this up is very important because IF Mike D'Antoni decided to choose either of these two, he should stick with them for at least 3 quarters or a whole game. Why? these two are defensive specialist, so when you rotate them, you won't see sudden jump in Knicks point. But their presence in the court will hinder opponents score less while Knicks will slowly get the score over time. But the coach didn't seem to focus on defense. He rather see Knicks points go up once his starting lineup begins the game. And if he saw the Knicks score remain the same, he will rotate bench players in time out quite soon. That actually kills the team tempo and chemistry.

Novak: Novak becomes 3point specialist. His breakout was equally in the same phase as Linsanity's. His 3 pointers were going up. His last 3 point in Knicks against Minnesota was actually savior. His constant shooting against Mavericks was pivotal in boosting Knicks moral in Madison Square Garden. For all that advantages he brings into the game, there's a setback about that too. He is not specialized in defense. So you gotta balance between his presence in the game and lack of defense. His 3 point will bolster the score time by 3. But you gotta have a tallest guy in the court to get the rebounds in case his shots are in the slumps. So you need to make use of Novak 3-pointer role wisely. You can't simply rotate Novak and let him score 3 points consecutively and afterwards bench him. You'd at least let a player play in the game for about 2 or 3 quarters until they feel it. If he's in the shooting slump, just change the technique and at least make use of his presence in the court like blocking the opponents.

Jeremy Lin: While Linsanity was at its peak, Lin was controlling the ball. Although his role as a point guard required him to pass the ball, but he was filled with defense players like Tyson, Jeffries and Shumpert. So in this situation he tried to score by himself. If he thinks his pass will only get the score, he passed. And Knicks defense was awesome at that time, considering all those defensive players in the court. He didn't really need to think of who to pass the ball or how many he should score. He will try to win the game and pass the ball when necessary. And his breakout at Knicks made him famous person and his stats are all over the internet. A wide array of technical analysis on his play inevitably ensued. His weakness in left paint and his high turnovers and such. He became a marked player and subsequently he's got double-teamed, evidence supported in the game against Miami Heat. I still think the reason why Knicks lost Heat was they weren't prepared. Everytime Lin's got double-teamed, there's nobody around him to get off one person. This double teaming made him pass the ball in questionable time when there's nobody around. So it became his high turnover and the title of "Jeremy Lin got exposed?" made a hit in the next day. Since then even his mere turnover number will make him an another pun of "Turnover machine". Whether or not I agree with that doesn't make any impact in our players analysis here.

Carmelo: Carmelo Anthony is not nobody. He's been playing basketball for almost a decade. He's in all star plays. He's in national team when playing in Olympics. And his salary is 18 million a year. So when someone with such a high profile came into the scene, he's gotta do something. He's got paid for something he should do in the court. He's a powerforward. His role is to shoot the ball, attack the defense, get the basket. That's what he must do. He will shoot whenever he thinks the ball will get the basket. He will hold the ball if he thinks he needs an extra time. He will dribble the ball if required. That's what he's been doing even before Lin became a global sensation. Since his specialized role is shooting, his defense is not up to par with those really good defensive players. His presence in the lineup will therefore need a really good defensive player in the Knicks. Meanwhile he must score up to his best skill level. Knicks fan came here in MSG to watch Carmelo score as many as possible. That's very important fact. Why? Because the reason why Knicks fan came to MSG after Linsanity broke out is to watch Lin play and feel the Knicks win the game. Even if Lin doesn't jack up many shots. See how they chanted when Novak stellar 3 point shooting "We want Novak" once Mike D'Antoni benched Novak. That's what Knicks fan hopes for.  These fundamental expectations between Carmelo (isolation play) and Lin (making Knicks bench players deep) made the chemistry between them very difficult. In other word, their chemistry will never work out in the court.

Lin and Carmelo
Lin as a point guard; such autonomous control over ball as a point guard, free will to shoot, pass the ball, became surrendered when Carmelo was back in the game. Why? His free will to pass the ball became compulsory pass the ball approach. He must pass the ball to Carmelo. Such subconscious message always seems to hinder Lin's play at his best level. He's always required to look out for Carmelo, pass the ball. Forget about who told Mike D'Antoni to let Lin play in the first place for now (Actually D'Antoni said he didn't remember Carmelo saying this to him). Such a hectic play, Lin is not basically looking for an open man, he's looking for Carmelo.

Carmelo is a powerforward. And before he came back, there was rumor travelling he's gonna hog the ball and will ruin the Knicks chemistry. Whether or not intentional, his attempt to prove those rumors wrong made the case way more worse than we expected. Once he's got the ball, he's not shooting. He's passing the ball. That proves he's willing to pass the ball. The problem is he's only good at shooting, not passing the ball. He's not point guard. So when he passed the ball, the receiver just got the ball, while surrounded by all defensive players of the opponent team. No way to shoot around. Knicks then gave up the potential score. When he took the shot, his mind seemed to be occupied with hit it or get screwed again mentality. If he scored, that's his job of scoring. If he didn't, Knicks fan will boo him and will tag him with hogging ball player name.

Lin + Carmelo + Stat
You can have an awful defensive play from the team. Lin height unfortunately made him liable in his defensive play. He can't reach out to the board which, by the way, Chandler is really good at. Carmelo and Stat being powerforwards, they're not going to help Knicks defense that much.

So with such chemistry going on between Lin, Melo and Stat, and each of these players roles, I don't see the solution between these three any time soon. If coach Mike D'Antoni continues to try building up the chemistry between these three, he would be the foremost and only one in NBA who tries to become an alchemist in history.